With Ontario iGaming growth in 2024, we update how much money other provinces are losing with lack of regulation 732135

February 3, 2025 6t1e5y

In November of 2023, we wrote a piece that used data from an iGaming Ontario annual report to make estimates about the potential size of other provincial markets in of the number of active player s, the amount of gaming revenue and the related potential government revenues.  That iGO report gave us the cumulative number of active s within the reporting year. New iGO reporting simply gives us the number of active s in each month, so we don't have that same cumulative data with which to work. The number of active monthly s has only grown since that period, so although the cumulative active s within the last year has also likely grown as compared to those we used in that initial piece, we don't actually have those numbers for use here.

We can, however, use market size and activity metrics in 2024 for Ontario, and make assumptions about how things might look in other provinces based on overall population for a general idea of potential provincial market sizes. With another year to establish iGO brands within the province, the total gaming revenue of $2.269 billion in calendar year 2023 was able to grow 32%, to $3.003 billion in 2024. 

To for economic differences between provinces, as we did in the first piece, we adjust the assumed Annual Net Gaming proportionally according to median income levels. For example, if the median income in a given province is 10% lower than that of the Ontario median income, we adjust the Annual NGR figure down the same rate for that other province.

Provinces outside Ontario lost potential revenue of nearly $1 billion to the "grey market" in 2024 2k5r73

We can see the market performance of Ontario above. We also know that people in the "rest of Canada" continue to play on countless offshore betting sites, including offshore versions of over 40 gaming brands that operate in the legal Ontario market. These same legal Ontario sports betting, casino & poker brands will see the vast majority of the "offshore" Canadian NGR—and they are ready to be part of a legal framework, to share that 20%, just as they do in Ontario.

We can't know for sure how big these other provincial markets are, but using population figures, combined with Ontario's gaming results, adjusted for local income levels, we can get a reasonably good approximate estimate for how those provincial markets might have performed if they plugged into the iGaming Ontario ecosystem, in the same way that Manitoba and Saskatchewan have plugged into BCLC's PlayNow-dot-com.

In total, assuming a similar revenue share tax rate as used in Ontario, at 20% of annual NGR, well over $900 million could have been collected by other Canadian provinces in 2024.  Instead, all of that money was lost to the "grey market".  Most notably, Quebec, British Columbia, and Alberta can each be assumed to have annual NGR figures at or in excess of $1 billion. A 20% revenue share of these annual figures is significant.  Could Quebec hospitals use an extra $300 million a year?  Could BC education put $200 million a year to good use?  Could Alberta use an extra $200 million a year to help diversify its economy?

This is essentially free money for the provinces to collect. Online gaming is a voluntary tax that their own citizens have happily opted into paying through a recreational activity, which is already happening, and has been happening for over 25 years, but that politicians outside Ontario continue to forgo.

Is President Trump the catalyst for Canadian iGaming regulation? 3b3e2g

Now, at best, US President Trump's recently proposed tariffs are a threat to Canada's economy, encouraging co-operation on inter-provincial trade. At worst, they're a threat to Canada's sovereignty. How much longer can these other Canadian provinces afford to eschew the revenues that are on the table annually in the false name of piety or lottery corporation monopoly preservation? 

The provincial approaches to gaming, or lack thereof, allow far too much money to leave Canada. Furthermore, they allow for far too much harm. Those in offices of power in these provinces need to be making gaming safer for their citizens in the process.

Whether or not US tariffs are implemented, Canada has received a wake-up call. We can no longer depend on the largesse of America, to be the outsized market for our exports. We must diversify, but building for this will take time. Meanwhile, Canada needs to pick the low-hanging fruit with regard to revenue, and the iGaming apple is one metre off the ground - we just need to pluck it. Every day that es without making that telephone call to Ontario, to pluck that apple, is a complete dereliction of duty. 

Will President Trump's recent threat to Canada's economy finally push the provinces to take action on iGaming regulation?  If not now, when?

Go to SNBET's Canadian igaming news page.